Investment Commentary – April 11, 2023
Year to Date Market Indices as of April 11, 2023
• Dow 33,684(1.62%)
• S&P 4,108 (7.02%)
• NASDAQ 12,031 (14.96%)
• OIL $81.46 (1.18%)
• Barclay Bond Aggregate (2.91%)
• Gold (10.32%)
When is the last day to file taxes in 2023?
April 18 is the federal tax deadline for individuals and small businesses in 2023. It’s the due date for submitting your tax return and paying taxes you still owe on income earned in 2022. State income tax deadlines vary.
You can always get more time to file your federal return by filling out an extension request form, which will automatically give you a new deadline of October 18. Last year a record 19 million taxpayers asked for extra time. One thing to remember, however: The extension doesn’t apply to payments.
If you’re unable to pay your bill in full by the April 18 deadline, you can apply for a payment plan via the IRS website to make reasonable monthly payments. Interest charges will apply.
Bets against U.S. stocks swell to highest level since 2011. History shows that’s actually good news for markets.
Traders are growing increasingly confident that U.S. stocks are headed for a selloff. But history shows the opposite is more likely, according to an analysis by one macro strategist.
Speculative traders are more bearish than at any time in the last decade, according to the latest release from the Commodity Futures Trading Commmission’s weekly commitment of traders report, which tracks futures-market positioning in a number of currencies, commodities and U.S. equity indexes.
Net-short bets by noncommercial traders in S&P 500 e-mini futures have swelled to 321,459 contracts as of April 4, the largest level since October 2011.
Futures-market positioning is generally viewed as a counter-indicator by equity strategists, meaning the market often does the opposite of what futures traders expect, especially when positioning becomes notably crowded in one direction or the other. Of course, the past is no guarantee of future performance.
Over the last 25 years, outsize short positioning in futures has typically served as a counter-indicator, according to Brent Donnelly, a global macro strategist at Spectra Markets.
Donnelly highlighted six periods since 2000 where positioning in the e-minis became notably stretched to the downside. During four of those periods, the signal turned out to be a bullish indicator, meaning that stocks were higher six months to one year later.
Market-moving news
Jobs resilience: A monthly gain of 236,000 U.S. jobs that was reported on Friday was the lowest since December 2020, but it marked the 27th straight month of solid job growth. The government also reported that unemployment slipped to 3.5% and wages rose at a moderate 0.3% in March relative to February, which could ease inflationary pressures.
Narrow range: With the start of earnings season just around the corner, the major U.S. stock indexes didn’t make any big daily movements during a holiday-shortened trading week that concluded on Thursday, prior to Friday’s monthly jobs report. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, the NASDAQ fell 1.1%, and the Dow added 0.6%.
The views presented are not intended to be relied on as a forecast, research or investment advice and are the opinions of the sources cited and are subject to change based on subsequent developments. They are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investments.
https://www.marketwatch.com/ (Market Indices)
https://www.jhinvestments.com/weekly-market-recap (Around the Web & Upcoming Events)
https://finviz.com/groups.ashx (YTD Performance Chart)
https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/tax-day-01668009397
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bets-against-u-s-stocks-swell-to-highest-level-since-2011-history-shows-thats-actually-good-news-for-markets-9f6237e6?mod=home-page
