Hello again!
I hope all of you are healthy and staying safe.
Our family is doing our part. Everything is shipped to our house including groceries and pharmacy.
We only go to work or the farm. However we don’t seem to be going crazy just yet.
Here is the latest information we can consolidate.
Next Teleconference: Special Guest Todd Baker with JP Morgan
Wednesday 4/22/20
800-747-5150
Passcode : 3814800# (must hit the # at the end)
2:00pm CST
Please share this email and this teleconference with anyone you want.
Performance DJIA:
Mon 4/13 -1.39%
Tues 4/14 +2.39%
Wed 4/15 -1.86%
Thurs 4/16 +0.14%
Fri 4/17 +2.99%
Last week +2.21%
Since 3/11 day before selling +2.93%
Since 2/19 market high -17.40%
Bond model you are in:
Last week +.52%
Since bought in -0.65%
Tid Bits:
1.The bond model is doing what we expect it to do. Separate from the first week in bonds, the remaining weeks have performed well.
2. Thank you to everyone for sending email requests for service. We get flooded after these Monday emails and Wednesday teleconferences. This helps us to minimize delays.
3. We had a bunch of clients join in the webinar I hosted with Attorney Glenn Stockton on Estate planning, discussing pros and cons to a Will based estate plans vs a Trust based estate plans. We got great feed back from clients.
a. We have this one recorded. If you would like a copy, please email Missy at [email protected].
b. If you would like a one on one zoom.com meeting or a phone call with the attorney Glenn or his partner Marion Stern, you can request this with Stacy at [email protected]
c. We are offering the next live webinar on estate planning with Glenn Stockton, next Tuesday. We are dealing with legalities with the company we use to put these on, so if interested in listening in and get your questions answered live, please email Stacy at [email protected] If we can’t get you on this, we will see what we can do for the next one or send you a recorded version.
4. Congress close to passing second round of Stimulus for the PPP
5. Affinity Asset Management is still business as usual. We are all working in casual clothes as our building is locked up and we are not seeing clients in person. Signatures are no problem. Many things can be emailed for signatures and when the documents are too many, we have clients come to the office, and we meet them in the parking lot so they can sign the forms in their cars.
Facts:
1. Coronavirus
Global: 2.4m cases 166,000 deaths
US 765,000 cases 40,620 deaths
KS 1,849 cases 92 deaths
MO 5,698 cases 198 deaths
Numbers seem to be flattening, YEAH!!!
2. I have personally talked to important people in banks that are concerned about the debt ratio they have. Banks make a lot of their money on loaning out money. And if people are laid off and debts are not getting paid, this will hurt the banks. If the banks start to hurt, this will have an additional stress on the economy and potential upcoming recession.
3. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.2% for the week ending April 4, an increase of 3.1% from the previous week. This marks the highest level of the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 7.0 percent in May of 1975. From the Department of Labor.
4. Protests all over the US on Americans wanting back to work happening today.
Highlights from analysts and economists:
1. News from News-(Being dramatic & emotional)
a. From MarketWatch: Most investors are wise to sit on the sidelines and prepare for the next bull market. Most important, don’t be fooled by the bear market rallies that zoom higher for a few days, and then fail. They often sucker bullish investors into buying, usually right before the next plunge.
b. From CNBC: Citi Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer David Bailin warned that the worst may not be over for stock markets in the U.S. “In the event that we have a very significant second wave of disease in the United States that cause a further shutdown of the economy … that clearly is not priced into the market,” he said. With the pandemic potentially dragging out a lot longer, Bailin said company earnings could fall by 40% “across the board” in the second quarter.
2. News from Analysts and Economists
a. From JP Morgan: I had a JP Morgan call with Bill Eigen, a bond portfolio manager.
i. The implied unemployment rate is about 16%
ii. Government money is not flowing where is intended to be for small businesses
iii. He is sitting on 40% cash
iv. He is pessimistic about the near-term future
v. He got COVID-19 and it was worse than any flu
vi. He believes the market is not accurately factoring in negative news
vii. Economic impact will be worse than the market is factoring in
b. From Morningstar: Oil prices crash to their lowest level in over 21 years. Heightened concern that the volume of oil held in U.S. storage is rising sharply, with the coronavirus crisis compounding the problem by dramatically reducing consumption.
c. From Pimco: We expect the global economy and financial markets to transition from intense near-term pain to gradual healing over the next six to 12 months. However, there is the risk if not the likelihood of an uneven recovery, with significant setbacks along the way and some permanent damage.
i. We expect the U.S. economy to experience a sharp recession in the first half of 2020 as widespread nonessential business closures necessary to slow the spread of COVID-19 curtail U.S. activity with unprecedented speed and severity. Our expectation for a peak-to-trough contraction of around 10% in quarterly GDP (not annualized) is significantly larger than the roughly 4% peak-to-trough decline during the global financial crisis in 2008. However, we also expect the contraction to be shorter, as quarantines are eventually relaxed and monetary and fiscal policy stimulus supports the economy – with a lag. Alongside this sharp contraction, we look for the U.S. unemployment rate to almost reach 20% before moderating back to between 6%–7% by year-end.
ii. During a teleconference today, that it is possible we could see covid 19 reemerge during the late summer and early fall timeframe and that we could see the market have another fall out from that. China is currently seeing that effect right now as their numbers have spiked again.
d. From Blackrock: Simply put, the world will be different after COVID-19, one example of that is going to be the acceleration of key megatrend themes that were already coming and are now going to arrive even faster. As part of a firm-wide effort across active investors, index investors, the BlackRock Investment Institute, key external innovators and thought leaders, we’ve identified five.
i. The first is technology: areas like AI, cybersecurity, networking, data. The second is demographics. Here, we’re talking about aging populations. For the first time in less than 10 years, there will be more grandparents than grandchildren in the U.S., more over 65’s than under 18’s, and that will be true worldwide shortly thereafter. Third is urbanization, which is about the move to cities. Fourth is climate change. Here, we’re talking about firms on the cutting edge of driving a clean green tomorrow through clean energy, electric vehicles and the like. And lastly emerging global wealth. One to two billion people will enter the middle class in the coming decade or so and 90% of those people live in emerging market countries in Southeast Asia.
Opportunities:
1. We are being told by our broker/dealer, Client One Securities (CIS), that your brokerage accounts should now be able to integrate with your personal tax software for those who do their own tax returns. Should be ready in a couple days. Any problems or questions on this, can be directed to C1S directly at 913-814-6097
2. Roth Conversions: think of it like this…Roth’s grow tax free, you can withdrawal tax free, it goes to your beneficiaries tax free, and there is no RMD rules (age 72). Problem is you need to pay taxes to get money out of your IRAs first before it gets converted to a Roth IRA. Next, with a $22T deficit, and this large $2.2T stimulus, income taxes are likely to be going up. Lastly consider, the Roth conversion rules may change in the future and go away. So we are recommending paying some taxes now, while we know what the rules are for 2020 and the taxes are for 2020.
3. Taking withdrawals from your accounts, hurts your accounts as you take money out. However taking withdrawals in a down market, causes way more harm. With share prices lower, you are selling more shares to generate that same income. We do this for you, and we teach it to others, how to take those withdrawals and cause less harm. You need your money, so lets get it in a way that minimize the negative affects of selling in a down market. We look for your better performing accounts in times like this, using your annuities, or Bonds. You do not want to take money out of stocks while the stock market is down so much.
4. Referrals. We know we bring this up on every email and teleconference, but we are hearing story after story of very similar nature. Investors are feeling paralyzed because their advisor or company is not doing anything-they too are paralyzed. Please help us help them. Examples of what we hear:
a. My advisor isn’t calling me back
b. My advisor isn’t doing anything
c. Telling me to hold on and ride it out, and I don’t want to do that.
d. Not taking advantage of the market down to exercise other strategies like doing something different with RMDs, Roth conversions, and transferring money from one account to another to get a jump start on growth when market rises again.
e. Any potential new client referred to us by an existing client will get a risk analysis work up on their current accounts and compare that to Affinity.
5. If you are still working, call your 401K company, (not your HR department of your employer) and ask if you have access to an “in-service rollover”. And if you do, let us know ASAP as there are potential large benefits that you don’t have at work in that 401K.
Reminders:
1. Todd Baker with JP Morgan will be joining us for this Wednesday’s edition of our weekly teleconference. I will speak for about 15-20 minutes, then he will speak for the next 15-20 minutes. His Topics will be Social Distancing Vulnerability, Oil and Energy, Prepare for recession, position for Rebound, and Stay updated not inundated.
2. “Trusted Contact Form” you received by C1S. Just fill out one per person and mail them back in the same envelope. This form is a new regulation in our industry, helping us as your advisor and C1S. In the event you don’t return our calls, emails, or text messages, and this is uncharacteristic of you, then you are giving us another name and number of someone who might know how to reach you. That’s all. This person doesn’t not have access to anything with your accounts.
3. Any service work you would like us to do for you, please email your request to us.
Thank you for your time in reading these updates.
Please share them with anyone you want to help
We invite you and your friends/family/and co-workers to listen in on this weeks Teleconference. Q&A to follow at the end.
Stay safe and stay healthy.
Mark Roberts
