Hello again
I hope this email finds you and your loved ones healthy.
Life has changed hasn’t it? I often catch myself wondering if this was the norm, would this be so bad? I guess it’s all in what you get use to.
But, I’m missing the shaking of hands, the hugs, going out to dinner, going out with friends, being handed money on the golf course for beating my friends ( I am exceptionally missing this—collecting via Venmo is not the same as cash…)
I am blessed and thankful for the health of my family, my co-workers, and friends.
I have an amazing group of people in my office and our strategic partners, and together we will be here for our clients, looking for opportunities to grow, thankful to have minimized losses, and providing service during these times for advanced strategies.
Thank you again for all those who turned out for last week’s teleconference.
We had another large turnout. The largest yet.
My sole purpose for these emails is to summarize a lot of information from the news over the past 1 week. The more clients are informed and actually understand the information, the less stress and anxiety they will have. Affinity has access to much more information than what we put into this email, so we are trying to minimize the duplicate information as well as use data that is helpful to a vast array of clients who read these emails. Some of you like a lot of information, and some want less. I am trying to strike a balance. We also don’t want to be sending you too much to the point, clients stop reading what we send.
Performance: DJIA
Mon 3/30 +3.19%
Tue 3/31 -1.84%
Wed 4/1 -4.44%
Thurs 4/2 +2.24
Fri 4/3 -1.69%
Last week -2.7%
Since 2/19 market high -28.27%
Since 3/11 Last day before trade -10.62%
Tid Bits:
1. Our office is remaining open-we are essential.
2. We are not taking office appointments at this time. All appointments are on the phone or web based meetings like Zoom.com
3. Our building is locked by the landlord. If you come, you have to call us from the parking lot, so we can let you in. Even for that, we will exchange information at the door of the building as we are not bringing anyone upstairs to our office.
4. Myself and attorney Glenn Stockton will be hosting a series of Zoom.com webinars called “The Community Cafe”. Be watching for more information on this. We will be keeping this 1 hour or less. Conversational. Q&A session. Topics on estate planning, taxes, retirement, the markets, Coronavirus, etc…
Facts:
1. I have read so many reports and interviews of “experts” commenting on the projections of the Covid-19. Here is my summary, I have read as many things on how much more worse its going to be, as reports on the over-estimate of the government, and reports on the under-estimate of these numbers. Seems as if there are a lot of people who have opinions, so I’m thinking there are a lot of people who want to make a name for themselves during all this.
2. This week and next, are the projected 2 weeks the death numbers will take its jump.
3. VIX, is a measure of volatility. How sharply the market will spike up and down. Since the CARES stimulus package, the VIX has decreased. We are seeing fewer 1000, 2000, 3000 point swings in the market daily.
4. President Trump tweeted out, he will go back to congress and ask for more money if they run out for Small Businesses.
5. Upcoming this week: Wednesday: Release of minutes from March 15 meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board. Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, U.S. Department of Labor
6. Total domestic cases are now 336,776 with 9,655 fatalities which is a 2.87% mortality rate (as of April 6th 4:48 ET – The New York Times)
7. Covid-19 case numbers flat lined in Germany, Italy, France, and Spain.
Highlights from analysts and economists we get info from:
1. From T. Rowe Price: They see the virus effects lasting until mid-May, early June. Some industries may be forever changed due to the virus. They used the cruise industry as an example. Liquidity in the Fixed Income markets is better, but some areas are still challenging. High Yield is still challenging. Collaterized Debt Obligations are still challenging. T Rowe Price does not see an inflation spike. They believe rates will stay low. This differs from JP Morgan. JPM sees an increase in rates. T Rowe Price sees the downside of the S&P 500 between 1900 and 2200. The range varies based on therapies for COVID-19
2. PIMCO analyst view: We expect the global economy to transition from intense near-term pain during the virus-suppression phase to gradual healing over the next six to 12 months, once the spread of the novel coronavirus is under control and the restrictions are being lifted. Restrictions on economic activity will likely be lifted only gradually and at different speeds for different sectors and regions. Also, repairing the supply chain and overcoming logistical and transport bottlenecks will take some time. As a consequence, following the nosedive in economic activity that is currently underway we expect the bottoming process to last a few months after the virus is under control, before output and demand ramp up back closer to more normal levels eventually, helped by fiscal and monetary support.
3. Multiple analysts believe Covid-19 will cause a global recession. So not just for the US but for other major countries as well.
4. The $2 trillion relief bill passed by Congress to address the coronavirus fallout includes $454 billion to backstop Fed lending programs. That should allow the central bank to pump as much as $4 trillion into the economy. That’s more than the Fed spent on its bond-buying program in the six years after the financial crisis.
5. Goldman Sachs predicts the U.S. economy will shrink at an annual rate of 34% in the next three months, thanks to a deliberate effort to slow the spread of the virus.
6. “This is going to be the hardest and the saddest week of most Americans’ lives, quite frankly,” US Surgeon General Jerome Adams said on Fox News Sunday.
7. US surgeon general Jerome Adams stated Sunday that the next two weeks will be our “Pearl Harbor” moment.
8. President Trump also stated on Sunday that ““The U.S. will reach a horrific point in terms of death, but it will be a point where things will start changing for the better,” he said Sunday evening.
9. Blackrock analyst view: The past week’s historic U.S. policy actions initially helped stabilize markets. We believe they are paving the road for an eventual – and strong – economic and market rebound, once we better understand the scale and impact of the outbreak. Markets, in our view, will ultimately settle down if three conditions are met: 1) visibility on the ultimate scale of the coronavirus outbreak and evidence the infection rate has peaked over the long term; 2) deployment of credible and coordinated policy packages; and 3) confidence that financial markets are functioning properly.
10. The loss of 701,000 jobs and unemployment rate spike from 3.5% to 4.4% in the March labor report reflected only the “early effects” of the coronavirus impact, the government said, as the numbers were based on surveys conducted March 8–14―before government-mandated shutdowns went into full effect. Meanwhile, the latest weekly report showed 6.6 million unemployment claims filed—double the previous record set in the preceding week.
11. Bond price rally: Prices of government bonds climbed, sending the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to a level just above a record low of 0.54% set on March 9, 2020. The 10-year yield was around 0.59% on Friday, compared with 0.73% at the close of the previous week. Negative earnings. With quarterly earnings season about to get under way, 2020 is expected to bring the biggest year-over-year decrease in earnings since 2008’s 25.4% drop. As of March 30, FactSet projected that earnings for companies in the S&P 500 will decrease by 1.2% this year. The research firm expects a 5.2% first-quarter decline followed by a 10.0% drop in the second quarter.
Opportunities:
1. For all those who are unemployed right now, the suggestion is to file for unemployment electronically.
2. For business owners under 500 employees, get your application in for your share of the CARES stimulus package
3. ROTH CONVERSIONS. This is a must. Take advantage of the market being down.
4. 59 ½ rule 10% penalty waived for those who need to take a withdrawal from your retirement accounts
5. Free IRA transfers from IRA annuities to your IRA brokerage accounts. Brokerage accounts will give greater diversification, and more upswing potential
6. Referrals, Referrals, Referrals. Thank you again for so many of you referring people in your lives to us for guidance thru these crazy times. We are still hearing stories of advisors doing NOTHING, or not calling their clients, or the old story of “hold on hold on, and ride this out”-this creates ZERO opportunities for the investor and no tax saving advantages being created either. All this does is cause people anxiety and stress as if all things Coronavirus and how different life is, isn’t stressful enough.
7. Lets help our community together, and connect us with them. Please share our name and number with them or give us their name and number and we will call them.
Reminders:
1. After these emails and teleconferences, we find it’s more efficient for us to receive your emails vs phone calls. Of course you are welcome to call, but if you have the ability to email, please do so. Most requests are service related and not so time sensitive plus we have multiple people in the office to help process any requests, so we can spread out the work load easier thru emails.
2. If you want back in the market when we re-invest and you want a different level of risk from what you had previously, please let us know
3. If you want to do a Roth Conversion, please let us know
4. If you want to transfer money from your IRA annuity to your IRA brokerage account, please let us know.
** Affinity Clients only :
A trusted contact form was recently mailed out to all clients from ClientOne Securities (our broker dealer / compliance office). It is not a scam and is now a form required by FINEA to be turned in if you haven’t already in the past. We only need one per household and the individual you list as your ‘trusted contact’ cannot make any investment decisions. It only gives us the authorization to reach out and ask that person of your whereabouts if we are unable to get ahold of you for a long period of time. Please fill in your and your spouses name then the information of your trusted contact then email or mail it back to us (email is preferred). You can also elect to not list an trusted contact as well. Sorry for all the mail they sent you and any confusions.
